Kill the Ibis. Kill the Ibis

(Elmer Fudd voice...)

Miami is in trouble. Miami has been in trouble before. Miami understands trouble. Miami grows trouble. Miami cultivates trouble. Miami breeds trouble. The problem with Miami lately, nobody cared because they weren't winning. Since 2004 they are tied for 5th on the wins list in the ACC. In no season did they have more than 9 wins. They have yet to compete for a conference title. It has been since the 2002 season since they were relevant to the football landscape. Heck, it's been 5 years since they won a bowl game. Wouldn't you think they would be better with that kind of money being thrown around, allegedly. Pryor won at least 10 games a year. Reggie Bush won a Heisman and a National Title. As did Cam Newton. They were singular players. Demaryius Thomas at least won an ACC title. What were they paying for in South Beach and Coral Gables?!

Currently, the NCAA is investigating the team and players to determine eligibility for this year. My feeling is that we are going to see another UNC situation with several players notified the end of next week that they will be sitting for the first few games. Depending on how things shake out, it could be a rough start to the season for the Canes: at Maryland, #18 Ohio State, Kansas State and at Virginia Tech all before October 8. If they are forced to sit all 15 players under investigation for the first 5 games, Uh Oh.

If found guilty on a bigger scale, which I don't see the NCAA making a ruling for quite some time, it could mean bigger issues. The suits at the top has all discussed tougher penalties, stiffer control, and sending messages to other schools. Should the death penalty be levied against the Canes? Well, yes and no.

Yes:
If USC got whacked for lack of Institutional Control and the "should have known" clause, then the Canes won't see the football field for 10 years. A booster giving checks for large sums of money, cussing out the compliance director at halftime in a private box, offering $1million to coach the team, standing on sidelines religiously and even leading the Canes out of the smoke in the Orange Bowl, the Miami equivalent of dotting the I at Ohio State. If this does not spell lack of Institutional control than nothing does. And the "should have known" thing...well, they did know.

Cleaning up the game and giving the Canes the death penalty would hopefully set a precedent for the remaining 115 schools competing for the National Title. Given Miami's past and what has transpired from them previously, they must be dealt with now. If not, if you are Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, TCU, Washington, UConn, etc why wouldn't you follow suit and start paying large sums of money to your players. There wouldn't be a worry about pay-for-play for the NCAA, the market would figure it out because Miami was allowed to get away with it. Have you seen the show "Scared Straight"? The NCAA should be filming a new episode soon...let's hope. Enough of the Ibis and the crooked ways.

And the no:
Killing Miami football would affect more than just Miami. Directly, the (clean) players that are there now would be devastated by past indiscretions. Even more directly, the remaining ACC schools would be hurt for years to come. Why would ESPN keep the tv contract when, let's be honest, one of the 3 big draws from the ACC would not be playing (or be allowed on TV for a period of time following.) A canceled TV contract, the inability to play against the Canes if you go to an opposing school, an uneven number of football teams in this day and age of musical chairs for conferences means that the NCAA probably won't kill the Ibis. There is too much money spread over too many teams to simply look directly at one school. Here's hoping that the NCAA suits figure out a stiff penalty, worse than USC's that will send the message to all schools out there and make them fly straight from here on out.

(That being said, I'm not a promoter of this, but if Miami is given the death penalty, Virginia Tech should run to the SEC as quickly as they can...)

And Now, Back to Your Regularly Scheduled Programming...

Now that things have shaken out for a few teams (the Chokies...) the regular season can continue with an eye towards November and beyond. The ACC and Big East have looked horrific thus far this season, with very little potential for change anytime soon. That is unless Duke beats Bama this weekend; yeah right. With matchups between the conferences, the only thing they can do is beat each other up. NC State and their new dog mascot roaming the sidelines (Tuffy II, because Tuffy I didn't work out in week 1,) beat Cincy last night. Maryland is squared off against West Virginia at noon on Saturday. Now that the 'Eers have jammed it into second gear going up hill, they should be able to roll along. Wake has a #19 Stanford team and Clemson travels to #16 Auburn. In the Big East, Louisville travels to #25 Oregon State. Looks like another longggg weekend for these two conferences.

In the Maryland-West Virginia battle, I definitely take the over (17.5) in couches burned on campus on gameday, combined.

The lock of the weekend is Nebraska -3 at Washington. I'm definitely not on the Husker band wagon, but for all of the hype, and to only be 3 point favorites, that look like easy pickings to me. Yes, Jake Locker is hyped to be all-world, but they will not cover the 3 against Big Red.

How in the world can the Hokies (0-2) be nearly 3 touchdown favorites (-19.5) against ECU (2-0)??!! The Purple Pirates are averaging 50 points a game! Does anyone think the Hokies can score 70 to cover?! This one makes no sense what so ever.

Michigan State, coming off wins against Directional Michigan and Florida I/A University, and is favored against the Golden Domers. This looks like a good weekend for Christ and Floyd to hook up for about 3 scores and easily cover the 3.5 point dogs.

While the Golden Domers are lighting up East Lansing, Mack Brown takes his chuck wagons into Lubbock to face Tuberville and The Red Raiders for the first time since the tip toe touchdown from Crabtree. This should be an amazing matchup, with whomever has the ball last with control of the game in their hands. I see the depth of Texas coming out on top, but definitely not due to the running game. The Long Horns are starting their third tailback in three weeks, showing a little chink in the armor. All three are serviceable backs, and with carries getting spread around, starting does not mean what it used to, but there is no clear number one. Garrett Gilbert will step up to the challenge, and take care of business in the second half coming from a double digit deficit to win late.

Keep an eye out to see if Utah can eclipse the 50 point barrier this weekend. They are playing a week New Mexico squad that has given up 72 and 52 in their first two weeks. The Utes bring a #14 ranking and a balanced offense into this game looking to capitalize on a defense that has been swiss cheese thus far.

Another curious line this week is UGA favored (-2.5) over Ryan Mallett and the Razorbacks. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the Bulldogs get it handed to them last week, and isn't Arkansas ranked #12. I understand this is between the hedges, but Arkansas has had two weeks to become a well oiled machine, and should shine, easily covering the line and winning outright on their kickoff to the SEC slate.

Speaking of SEC, it should be interesting to see the snap deliveries this week by Florida. After the Vols volunteered 48 against the Ducks, John Brantley should be poised for a big day if he can get the ball snapped to him. There will be one less target to throw to this weekend, which may actually easy the clutter and allow the flow to grow with the Gator offense. Two touchdowns is a funny number, especially late in the game, but I don't expect the Orange to scare the Gators in any manner on Saturday.

Anyone ready for a track meet this weekend? Oklahoma State and Tulsa! OSU is averaging 53 ppg, while giving up 27.5. The Golden Hurricanes are giving up 35.5 ppg while passing for nealry 380 ypg. These two teams should have over half a mile of offense combined, with the over or 69 points being passed by in the third quarter. Expect big numbers from Weeden, Hunter and Blackmon for the Cowboys and Kinne to not lower his season passing average for Tulsa.

Hey, didn't you used to be Major Harris?!

The Soft ACC?

2010's Opponent Winning % (Based on 2009 Records)
Foe Foe Foe Tms W/
Rank Wins Losses Win % Win Rec
1 LSU 98 56 63.64% 9
2 Minnesota 96 55 63.58% 8
3 Iowa St 97 56 63.40% 9
4 S Carolina 98 58 62.82% 11
5 Miss St 96 57 62.75% 9
6 N Carolina 97 60 61.78% 9
7 Virginia Tech 95 59 61.69% 8
8 Duke 94 60 61.04% 8
9 San Jose St 100 65 60.61% 8
10 Pittsburgh 92 60 60.53% 8
11 Wyoming 91 60 60.26% 6
12 Miami, Fl 92 61 60.13% 9
12 Auburn 92 61 60.13% 9
14 Washington St 91 61 59.87% 10
15 Alabama 84 57 59.57% 8
16 Tennessee 91 62 59.48% 8
17 Texas A&M 91 63 59.09% 8
18 USF 89 62 58.94% 8
19 Illinois 90 63 58.82% 7
19 Oregon St 90 63 58.82% 8
21 NC State 91 64 58.71% 9
22 Syracuse 81 57 58.70% 7
23 Oklahoma 90 64 58.44% 8
23 UCLA 90 64 58.44% 8
25 UNLV 97 69 58.43% 9
26 Penn St 88 63 58.28% 6
27 Michigan 87 63 58.00% 6
28 Georgia Tech 87 64 57.62% 7
29 Vanderbilt 89 66 57.42% 10
30 Washington 88 66 57.14% 9

Who says the ACC is soft?! The conference has 4 of the top 12 toughest schedules this year based on opponents winning percentage last season. The percentage includes in-conference tilts, but also includes the out of conference games this season. In the first two weeks this year we'll see UNC-LSU, VT-Boise, Miami-Ohio State, all teams ranked in the top 20. I guess we'll know quick how tough the conference really is.

The ACC

Conference Previews

ACC

Ah, the conference that hits closets to home, based on geography and alma mater. Growing up in ACC Country, I remember the RayCom ACC game of the week on Saturday’s at noon, specifically the 1984 Maryland victory over defending National Champ Miami. The Canes had a 31-0 lead at half, but for some reason, I kept watching. Frank Reich replaced Stan Gelbaugh and led the Terps to a 42-40 victory in what would stand as the largest comeback victory for 22 years. There were the days of LT at Carolina. Tory Holt putting up highlights week after week, especially when he single handedly beat FSU. Quarterback U at Maryland; Boomer Esiason, Frank Reich, Neil O'Donnell, Scott Zolak, and Stan Gelbaugh. Clemson and Death Valley in the late ‘80’s. The Yellow Jackets and the shared National Championship in 1990. Then onto the new millennium and expansion, with my Hokies falling geographically where they belong (with a little help from a Va Governor.) Three conference titles in 6 years, and here we are on the brink of another season.

There were only 2 coaching changes this year in the conference, but they could not have been more polar opposites. Bobby Bowden, despite having wins stripped and amid several shady occurrences (Free Shoes University) finally retired turning the reigns over to Jimbo Fisher. I wish he would have left, but there’s been rumblings this summer that he was “shoved” out by the President of the University. Well, Bobby, better to shove than need a shovel. Go quietly, thank the University for several years, and go grill. The other turnover was at UVa. Every year, Al Groh would have a 4 star recruiting class, have so much upside, and do absolutely nothing with it. I saw a great t-shirt last year: “Loosing in Football at UVA, it Grohs on You.” Heck, I was willing to give to the UVA athletic fund if they would keep him one more year… Mike London shows up with high-turnover in the coordinator slots over the past few seasons, but should be able to provide some stability to the program. Let’s be honest, the enrollment criteria at UVA isn’t as strict as Richmond.

C.J. Spiller and Demaryius Thomas, two of the more productive and impressive players in the Country last year, are gone from the conference along with a plethora of defensive players taken in the NFL draft this year. That means across the board, the offenses should be more seasoned than the defenses, in general. The one team that stands above the rest, with several pre-season all-Americans is North Carolina. However, they could still find themselves in hot water with the NCAA before it’s all over with, bringing them back to the pack. Expect to see some shootouts this year with tons of games going down to the wire. Quick scores, big plays, and jaw-dropping highlights will be the standard in the 2010 ACC season.

Christian Ponder is everyone’s all-ACC player of the year, expected to lead the Noles to a conference title this season, their first since 2005. It’s nice to reminisce, but don’t get too sentimental. Jimbo Fisher won’t struggle with the head coaching duties, but the Noles will struggle with inconsistent play and turnovers. They have always have had big special teams plays, but will be lacking in that category this year. I see Russell Wilson putting up Philip Rivers type numbers this year to steal the award away from his fellow QB, with Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Parker, Jacory Harris and Josh Nesbitt right behind. Then there’s the running back tandem at Virginia Tech this year, Darren Evans and Ryan Williams, the 100 Proof Backfield.
Oh, and there’s also Sphomore Freak David Wilson, who at last year’ media day ripped off 8 back flips in a row and upped it be two this year with 10. He’s played his way out of red-shirting this year, guaranteeing himself some carries as well as being a part of the return team. Montell Harris’ workload will be reduced, meaning a healthier and quicker running back at the end of the year for the BC push.

Everyone will know if the top team of the league will come out of the Coastal or the Atlantic after the first game of the year. UNC plays LSU in Atlanta in the “Eat More Chicken” Kick-off game. If the Tar Heels stay out of the NCAA doghouse, and put Les Miles in a funk early, the Heels could find a swagger that they haven’t seen in Chapel Hill since 1980, 10 years before half the team was born. FSU opens with Samford, and should be up by 35 at half. If they struggle early, that could be tell-tale for the remainder of the season. Then there’s the earliest of the National Title implication games between Virginia Tech and Boise State. If the winner puts the other team away by double digits early, they could have a path started for the BCS title game, especially Boise with the remaining schedule. If Tech rolls through 14 point winners, it shows that this team is for real this year, with senior leadership in Tyrod and scrappy defense by committee.

The following week when the Noles visit Norman Oklahoma, they’ll realize they’re not playing Samford any more, and we’ll see how stout this team is. Welcome to the head coaching job Jimbo! Oh, and by the way, we close the season with the Gators. And don’t forget our October visit to Miami for the U. Roll through those three games with only one loss and this team takes home the ACC title. But, I don’t see that happening. Stoops will perform a little rookie hazing for the new coach. Urban will oblige when Jimbo says thank you sir, may I have another. This year’s version of wide right will go down in lore of great games between the two programs, with a potential trip to Charlotte for the ACC title game on the line.

Atlantic Division:
Florida State will find themselves at the top of the division, but not with a pretty record. Three overall losses will make them hungry for the ACC title since that will be their only ticket to a BCS game this year.

Coastal Division:
Virginia Tech wins the opening game against Boise by 12, and has the focus to roll the remainder of the season. The defense lost 7 starters, but Bud Foster always reloads. Rashad Carmichael will be the all-everything for the Hokies this year. Beamerball will make a triumphant return this year, with over a handful of blocked kicks and over a dozen special teams/defensive touchdowns. Hokie Nation will travel in drove to Charlotte for the 3rd ACC title in 4 years. This will be a tune-up for the meeting with the Sooners on January 10, 2011 in Glendale for the big Crystal Football.

Atlantic:
1. Florida State, 9-3, 7-1. Too tough an out of conference schedule bookending the season will hurt the Noles chances for bigger things this year. You picked a good year to get out Bobby.
2. Clemson, 8-4, 5-3. Kyle Parker will try to make Tiger fans forget about CJ Spiller, but to no avail. Andre Ellington will crack the 1,000 yard mark, but they won’t be able to crack the Atlantic code like 2009.
3. Boston College, 9-3, 5-3. Running back by committee will ease the load on Harris, but won’t keep him under the 1,000 yard mark. Special teams will win a close one or two, but it won’t be enough to unseat FSU.
4. North Carolina State, 6-6, 3-5. Russell Wilson will put up huge stats, but if the defense gives up 35, it’s hard to win every game. Look for several “overs” this year involving the Wolfpack.
5. Wake Forest, 5-7, 2-6. A young team that will be tough next season after some seasoning this year. There’s not a standout on the team now, but one will emerge prior to Halloween for the Deacons.
6. Maryland, 3-9, 1-7. They nearly unplugged the fridge last year, but the $8 million tag was too much to bear. I think they’ll try to find it come December 2010.

Coastal:
1. Virginia Tech, 12-0, 8-0. Yes, go ahead and say it. I’m biased!!! So what! I’ve followed the fall practice and I believe this could be the year. The 100 proof backfield. Tyrod as a senior signal caller. Special teams that have Beamer happy, and playing Beamerball. Tyrod was top 15 last year in passer rating with nearly 150. His senior leadership and ball control will lead the way. We have 3 receivers that will potentially be playing on Sundays in the future, and with all eyes on our pair of tailback that have accounted for 2,920 rushing yards and 32 touchdowns over the past two years. Stinespring finally figured out how to call plays the last few games of last year, spreading the ball around and confusing defenses. Without that display of production, I wouldn’t make this pick. I hope it keeps up, otherwise, he will be the governor on an otherwise wide open offense. The Hokies will beat FSU in Charlotte and punch their ticket to Glendale to face Boomer Sooner in Glendale. (There’ll be a ton of maroon there in January…)
2. North Carolina, 10-2, 6-2. This defense is sick, and won’t be to blame for the two losses. There’s no way you can in a 9-7 game… The entire defense will be named ACC player of the week more than once, and they will need a truck for the awards they receive this year.
3. Miami, 8-4, 6-2. Back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Pitt set the season off on the wrong foot. Jacory Harris will rebound enough to tie for second in the division, but not enough to avenge the loss to VT last year.
4. Georgia Tech, 7-5, 4-4. The triple option clicked last year, especially with the fourth option of throwing the ball to Thomas. Without that threat this year, and a slightly bum wheel for Nesbitt, it just won’t run over people the way it did in 2009.
5. Virginia, 4-8, 1-7. New coach, stellar recruiting class, same results.
6. Duke, 3-9, 0-8. Still revel in your Basketball championship….

Front Runners, Again?

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/072610aaa.html


Should we be concerned...picked to win the ACC, again?