Week 6 Oktoberfest Edition

Here we are, right in the middle of the season. Last weeks performance of 5-4 was mediocre at best for the biggest week of the young football season. (Unfortunately, I went 1-5 in the post 7:30 games ATS on Yahoo! last week.) This week provides a little breather for some, and a little more light on some of the conference races.

To kick things off:

Pig Sooie(-6)vsThe Agricultural and Mechanical College of Tejas

(in the house that Jerry built)

Ryan Mallet and the Razorbacks step out of conference to face another highly touted QB in Jerrod Johnson. Both have next level potential, both have over 1200 yards passing so far, both have double digit touchdowns, both have a single tough loss this year. What Arkansas posses that A&M doesn’t is a defense. Johnson will find his spots, and the running game will help to cover the touchdown, but Arkansas will pull it out. I see a 4^th quarter cover, just coming up short in the end.

Arkansas 28 – A&M 24

Alabama (-7) @ South Carolina

The ‘Ol Ball Coach, at 3-1, getting dissed at home?! You better bet there has been more than a few sit downs with QB Mullet the past 2 weeks. “Don’t embarrass me on National TV like you did two weeks ago Stephen!!!” Well, sorry coach, he might not have a lot of control over the issue. This is the beginning of the games where Bama faces opponents that have had the week off prior. That’s good news for the opponents, but let’s face it, Bama is hot. The last thing a hot team wants to do is stop, and that’s something Bama definitely is not doing. There’s not even a 4^th quarter cool down lap this year. The Defense on this squad may actually be better collectively than last year’s team. Ryan Mallet managed 20 against them, and he’s a first rounder. The side show Burton couldn’t keep his 5 rushes-5 touchdown magic going, with no Gator td’s put on the board. Garcia has NO CHANCE. Spurrier’s only hope is some trickeration, some lucky breaks and bounces, and for Alabama to forget to get on the bus. This machine keeps rolling along, putting up over 40 on the road.

Bama 41 – USC 13

Sparty @ Meeshigan (-4.5)

Yes, Kirk cousins will rack up yards on top of yards on top of some more yards. The Wolverine secondary should be renamed thirdary because it stinks. However, 400 yards does not necessarily mean a victory or cover. Shoelace is playing, and that’s all that matters. Look for yet another double doubler, 200 passing AND rushing. The winged men, at home, are the Victors of the Day, playing Alexander the Great in defeating Sparta.

Michigan 37 – Michigan State 24

LSU @ the Gators (-7) in the Swamp

Is this the same Florida squad that didn’t even score 7 at Bama last week, that needed a 5 TD sideshow against Kaintuck, that had issues with Miami…the one in OHIO, had issues with Ol Rocky Top? Really? I know Les Miles sometimes forgets that he’s actually in control and has to do something, but a touchdown dog for an undefeated team. I know they are uglier than the Gators, but a touchdown? Not sure both teams combine for 7 points. Between the Center-QB relationship that is rockier than MLB umpiring and Jordan Jefferson providing 6 catches for opposing defenses, the punters may not have a lot of work to do. I see LSU driving, late in the 4^th quarter, taking 3 straight delay of game penalties backing up Josh Jasper…to make a 57 yarder in the final minute to win. This is an October baseball game, right?!

LSU 3 – Florida 2

Trojans @ The Tree (-9.5)

Jim Harbaugh and the big tree are raging mad that they got pissed on by a duck last week as it was flying over them, repeatedly. Being a fine California Institution of higher learning, they can either come out swinging or have a sit-in. I don’t see Jim as the pacifist type guy. Luck will be on point, taking advantage of the terrible Thirdary of boys of Troy. Bradford will continue his ground dominance, putting up over 150 yards on 15 carries, but the tree will get mad, get revenge, and just plain embarrass Lane Kiffin. Oh how the mighty have fallen. (Sidebar, enjoy this 9 win season while you can Stanford, the train ride stops after Luck and Harbaugh are no longer there next year…)

Stanford 41 – USC 17

Free $hoes University @ Da U (-6.5)

Jimbo comes to town 4-1, and 2-0 in the ACC. Jacory is home again, ready to complete passes, no matter what team they play for. This lends itself to be another amazing game in the series…not to the level of Wide Right, or Wide Left, but maybe kick starting what the ACC was hoping for when they expanded with an actual Florida presence that matters. These two are 1-2 in sacks, and that could keep the score down, or let things ride over the top with man coverage in the secondary. Jacory gets some smelling salts, sees the light, and has a career game to carry the hurricanes to victory.

Miami 27 – FSU 16

Rocktober Football Begins with a Bang

Wow, I think I’ve recovered from last weeks 2-4 record. That brings the overall season record to 14-9. This week has been circled on the calendar since mid-August because of the number of impact games. It doesn’t get any easier for the teams that expect to continue on their march to Glendale (or the BCS.) Given that fact, why not just jump into it and pick the big games instead of picking and choosing alone.

Buckle up kids. It’s going to be a bumpy ride!

Let’s start with Thursday night’s game: Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (-3)

Both are 3-0, but neither is ranked. I have a feeling the survivor of this one will crack the top 25 next week after tonight’s matchup. The Cowboys lead the country in yards per game, just shy of 600, and now lead is ppg at 57. A&M wasn’t smooth against FIU, but Jerrod Johnson has a ton of hype on the conference (and one of my fantasy teams is counting on him showing up tonight as well.) When all is said and done, Kendall Hunter will have over 200 yards from scrimmage, Blackmon will have 3 tds, and the Cowboys will bet he first to 40 for the home win and cover of the 3 points, with an over of the 66.5.

OSU 45 - A&M 37

Miami (-3) @ Clemson

Clemson played Auburn to the wire, while the Hurricanes were being downgraded in Columbus. Miami as road favorites, in Death Valley? That shows no respect for the old guard ACC, and proves the desire to push for the new guard to be relevant in order to upgrade the conference stature. Well, it won’t happen in this game. Jacory Harris is in a giving mood, and the Tigers will capitalize, this time, for the outright win at home.

Clemson 27 - 21

Virginia Tech (-3.5) @ NC State

The Hokies are coming off a shutout road win, and the Pack are the last undefeated team in the ACC. Get ready for a fight in this one. Although it doesn’t matter much outside of tobacco road, it has huge implications in the conference race, and the BCS race. The Hokies are coming into their own, the defense is looking like they actually have met Bud Foster before, and the special teams are showing up. However, Stiney is still asleep at the wheel, unable to stick it in. The lack of touchdown production was an issue to begin the season, but since the D is here, it hasn’t hurt us in the past 2 games. Give David Wilson some more touches, turn Williams loose, and grind Evans right up the middle. And when they aren’t looking, let Tyrod go up top to Boykin and Coale. Russell Wilson may be the next Phillip Rivers, having already surpassed the 1000 yard mark this year. The Wolf Pack is a well oiled machine, clicking on all cylinders at this point. But, VT is not Directional (Western) Carolina or Cincinnati this year. The Hokies roll into Raleigh and grab a hold of the Coastal lead with tough D and just enough scoring to cover the 3.5. It’s not pretty, and Tuffy II won’t like it, but that’s the breaks.

VT 23 - NC State 17

Meeshigan (-10) @ Indiana

Shoelace! There’s not much more to say, but there will be more written. Denard will play the first half, provide a lead for the Maize and Blue, and “rest” the leg in the second half. The Hoosiers won’t be able to tackle, or find Robinson as he puts up over 300 yards in the first half. Tandon Doss, with over 100 yards and 2 tds in the second half, will do his best to stage a comeback, but Meeshigan will leave with a win and cover.

Michigan 37 – Indiana 23

Texas – Oklahoma (-3.5)

The Longhorns are what they used to be. Neither are the Sooners, but they will be better than their foes this weekend. The Landry Jones to Broyles connection will be hot this weekend as OU takes a step closer to the Big 12 championship dance. Of course it would at least be nice if we could watch this game this weekend, but ABC/ESPN decided that nobody east of the Mississippi cares. Thanks. I’ll read about it Sunday morning.

Oklahoma 41 – Texas 20

Wisconsin (-1.5) @ Michigan State

Sparty needed OT (and a heart attack) to beat the Golden Domes, who are 1-3 btw, in East Lansing. This one might stay close for a half, but the Cheeseheads will prevail. Both teams will rack up over 300 yards on the ground, but turnovers will cost State dearly in the end.

Wisconsin 27 – MSU 24

Notre Dame (-2.5) @ Boston College

Notre Dame? The team that’s 1-3, and on the road this weekend, is favored, but almost a field goal, on the road, with only 1 win, is that right?! I guess the thing that really bothers me about this game is the fact that this is the ABC game Saturday night. At lest Matt Millen is doing this game, so we don’t have to hear him anywhere else. Sure, the Eagles were grounded and shutout last weekend, but putting them as home dogs to THIS team? Notre Dame is 99^th in the Country in rushing. Crist has been throwing the ball well, but the air in Chestnut Hill will be a little different than the pristine Saturday afternoons played before Touchdown Jesus. I see Montell Harris showing up big time and carrying BC to yet another victory over Notre Dame.

Boston College 36 – Notre Dame 16

Florida @ Alabama (-7.5)

The past two years, the winner between these two has gone on to win the National Championship. That may or may not be the case this year, but it lines up as another great matchup. There are more than a few questions on the Gator side of the ball: Can Pouncey find the QB snapping out of the shotgun? Can Brantley find his grove against what is proving to be another stout Bama defensive backfield? Is Burton a real threat (5 rushes, 5 touchdowns???!!!) or just a gimmick that worked against a weaker SEC foe? Will the issues and injuries affect the on field play come Saturday night? That’s a lot of issues for a 4-0 team ranked #7. As for Bama, the answered some questions last week, like: How will they play from behind in the second half? How will Mark Ingram fit back into the offense in a big game? How will the D look against one of the top rated QB’s? Let’s add that up real quick…3 positives for Bama, 4 negatives for Florida. But that's why they play the games on the field and not on paper. Florida’s defense keeps them in the game till the end, just enough to win on the road.

Florida 31 – Alabama 24

Penn State @ Iowa (-7)

The Nitany Lions have already experienced a tough beating on the road, which will prepare them for the trip home Sunday. Adam Robinson will be a workhorse for the Hawkeyes, carrying the ball over 30 times for over 180 yards and 2 scores in a snoozer.

Iowa 28 – PSU 10

Stanford @ Oregon (-6.5)

The over/under for the game is 65. Is that the game, or first half? Oregon ducked under a point per minute average after last week, but didn’t relinquish the lead in ppg (57.8), having to battle back from 14 down to beat the Sun Devils on the road. On the other side of the ball, Stanford is 4^th nationally in ppg at 48.0. They might need a third digit for the score board Saturday night. I’m just happy we get a chance to watch this one since it was originally scheduled for 11:15 est. All the attention has been on Luck and his passing ability, and potential #1 pick status. This game is the one to shine in if you want to solidify your financial future, and maybe even your trophy collection come December and January. But, look at Oregon’s signal caller, and he’s 90 yards and 1 td behind Luck in the stats column. It will be a matter of who executes better, and more often as to who comes out on top. Both of these defenses aren’t too shabby, and can hold their own. Honestly, I don’t see each of them scoring at will this weekend, playing more of chess match than a track meet, feeling each other out along the way and trying to wear the other one down. Oregon is at home, giving them an advantage, and giving Brent Musberger tons to babble about. The ducks wear all yellow (1 of over 512 combos they have available) and cut down the tree.

Oregon 34 – Stanford 22

60's Weekend

It was hip to be retro this weekend, turning the clock to the 50's and 60's. That's scoring, of course. Oregon INCREASED it's points per minute average to over 1.0 by posting 69 points this weekend (In a 69-0 trouncing might I add.) Bama posts 62 on the road, Stanford 68 late, Nebraska 56 in Washington, Boise 51 after a week off and Oklahoma State posts 65 with 722 total yards. Even Directional (Central this time) Michigan got into the game putting up 52, and we have to tip our hats to Nevada posting 52 early on Friday night.

LaMichael James made his 2010 debut in style, rushing for 227 yards on 14 carries (That's a 16.2 average) and a pair of scores. Mark Ingram came back from a scoped knee to post over 100 yards in the first quarter. Justin Blackmon caught only 6 passes, but 3 were for scores. 174 yards leads the FCS this week. Possibly more impressing is Torey Smith catching 3 passes, 2 for scores, and 149 yards for a 49.7 yards average. The Terps lost to the 'Eers this weekend however, taking the luster off the Navy win a little bit.

How about some trickeration?! Who would have the intestinal fortitude or the wherewithall or craziness to call a fake field goal, in overtime, to win. Good on ya Sparty! (Notre Dame still covered though.)

It's nice to see the Hokies have finally found something that works. Stiney finally looked like he had half a clue, and the defense didn't look like a pee-wee team chasing the ball around. Maybe we can have a repeat of the 95-96 season, starting 0-2 and going on to win 10 straight and the Sugar Bowl. Here's hoping anyway...

Oregon faces off against Stanford in 2 weeks, which should give us a look into the Pac-10 a little better, and potentially what these quakers are made of this year. Stanford is 3rd in the Nation in scoring, so don't expect a ton of defense in this one. It's an 11:15 game, so set the DVR on the east coast.

The Biggest Week, Yet

Week 2 of the college football season is upon us with a plethora of big games. This week may not determine the overall feel, but should set the tone for the next few weeks. I'm surprised Game Day chose the Bama-Penn State game to set up shop, especially with the Gators showing up in 3 weeks, but bey, they are the #1 team, for now.

As far as the Tide game goes, they should easily cover the 12 point spread over the true Freshman QB for JoPa. True, Mark Ingram is out again, but how much are they loosing without him? Robinson is more than serviceable as an SEC tailback starter. Bama won't loses nay votes this week!

BJ Daniels and the South Florida Bulls are treking north about 2 hours to Gainesville. The Gator center was quoted in August that Chris Rainey was going to be the whole offense this year. I guess he wanted to make sure he was right in attempting to snap the ball to him directly, or at least where he could pick it up off the turf every time. Talk about making your predictions come true. For the record, Rainey had 3 carries for 1 yard and 6 catches for 34 yards and a TD. If that's the whole offense, it could be a really long year for the #4 team in the nation. Hey Pouncey, get the ball to Brantley and let the boy do work!

South Carolina and Georgia open up their SEC tilts against one another yet again. This has been the opening matchup every year since the Game Cocks joined the SEC in 1992. Let's see how many grey hairs Garcia can give the 'ol Ball Coach this week. Despite AJ Green being sidelined by a used jersey, the Bulldogs will be just fine on the road this weekend. The tailgating restrictions won't affect the UGA faithful this weekend, meaning success all the way around.

The UGA contingent will be out in full force this weekend.

The Seminoles are traveling to Norman, OK to take on the Sooners. The line has moved a point towards the Noles, which is a little curious. Stoops versus Stoops is the headline, but the players on the field will ultimately determine the outcome. The DeMarco Murrary/Ryan Broyles show will be in full effect this weekend for a national audience, sending Free Shoes University back to Fla with an L, and not even a cover on the 7.5 points.

The Horseshoe will see a Hurricane this weekend in Jacory Harris. The Buckeyes think they have the ultimate QB in Pryor, but they haven't met Jacory yet. Both may be sitting side by side in new York in December for a trophy presentation, but only one can win this game. There is very little respect for the Canes with a 9 point line. They will easily cover this, and might even scare the Buckeyes a little late in the fourth. This game will be decided in the last 30 seconds, but OSU won't cover the line.

THE premiere game of the weekend, and what will be the most talked about game for the next month because of the meaning to each Institution is the Michigan - Notre Dame game. Both programs have had a rough few seasons, and appear ready to jump back into relevance. Two will enter, one will leave. This game will have a little bit of everything, a controvesial call by the refs, highlight reel catches, big hits by the D, turnovers, mistakes, dropped passes, bad clock management, basically everything that has been Wolverine and Irish football the past few seasons. The difference this year will be the level of the great plays/players will far outshine recent history, leading to an instant classic. Neither team will lead by double digits during the game. Both will miss "key" field goals. Both teams will post 400 yards of offense. But at the end, the Blue and Maize will leave the Victors of the Day.

The questions of the Oregon - Tennessee game: What will the Ducks wear this week? Can the Vols hold the Ducks under 72, in 3 quarters?!

SEC

Conference Previews

SEC



The crystal football has resided in the SEC for the past 4 years. And everyone this year seems to think that the path to the BCS title will involve the SEC champion, even if they have one loss. Well, that’s a nice story, but it doesn’t hold water. Sure, the SEC is the premier football conference in the nation. Great games, great coaches and story lines, great stadiums, great tailgating, great way of life during the fall. But all 12 teams will be disappointed this year when only the winner gets to play in the Sugar Bowl. And news flash, it won’t be the Elephants from ‘Bama.

Before I get started, I don’t understand how Vol fans are mad at Lane Kiffin. I mean, really?! He was headed down a path that may have put you on probation, won 7 games (4-4 in conference) and didn’t do much other than piss off the other coaches in the league. If you want an arrogant fat mouth, who goes 7-6, why is Phil Fulmer gone??? If it were me, I would have organized a going away party for him. Good riddance.



Alabama is everyone’s preseason #1. Pre-season. I wish they wouldn’t come out with another poll until after the October 2 games. That would give the teams at least 4 chances to show what they have THIS year. It would also allow a few of the bigger non-conference games to have been settled, and some intriguing match-ups to set the course for the remainder of the conference tilt. I just hate when the pollsters rank teams up top, then they can’t be moved because they “should” have played better. That’s the beauty of college football. You can’t phone it in this week, just because the guys in Vegas say you should win by Vince Young’s Wonderlic score. (6 out of 50, if you were curious.) You HAVE to show up every week and every game matters.

This year’s version of the SEC reminds me of the good ‘ol Big Ten. Where the teams would beat each other up for 9 straight weeks and the team at the top of the heap was actually proud to be headed to Pasadena. The winner, survivor of the SEC this year will be ecstatic to be in the Sugar Bowl. Which means it won’t be Bama. There’s no way they would be content with just a trip to New Orleans. Having lost 9 starters on Defense they will struggle this year with the BCS hangover. There’s also that interesting little scheduling quirk where they play 6 teams, in conference, after a bye week. In their 12 game schedule, they don’t get to double digit wins in the regular season this year.

So, if it’s not Bama, then it has to be the Gators, right? With Tebow gone, the offense has to “re-learn” a normal attack, one where they have a very good general idea where the quarterback is at all times. And that’s where Urban Meyer thrives. He may have cut back with the off-season ailments, but John Brantley will step right in under center and shine like Florida QB’s do. By the October 2 game with the Tide, Brantley will have the Gator nation clamoring for #12 jerseys. Then of course, there’s the World’s Largest Cocktail Party. (Go ahead officials, drop the name from official use, but we all know what event you are talking about, nudge nudge, wink wink.) Who came up with the birght idea to hold this the day before Halloween?! Things could get ugly in Jacksonville. Real ugly.

There are two teams battling for the east, Georgia and Florida. There are two teams battling for the west, Bama and Arkansas. Les Miles will save his job this year, but barely. Auburn will be better, but not quite there yet. The ‘ol ball coach can’t find a QB that he likes, even though Garcia isn’t that bad, he has his own bedazzled water bowl Spurrier made for him.

John Brantley wins player of the year, but Ryan Mallet drops the hammer on the Gators in the SEC championsip game, passing for 400+ yards and 4 TD’s. But with 2 losses, the Razorbacks (nor the SEC) won’t be playing for the National Title this year.

Onto the predicted order of finish, with records:

EAST
1. Florida, 11-1, 7-1. Brantley is the real deal. The wide out corps is amazing, and can return kicks. The defense will be stout. Urban will be able to breath, for a little bit, especially after beating Bama on Oct 2, but will have nightmares on Halloween after losing to UGA while being ranked #1. They will still be in the BCS hunt until the SEC championship game.
2. Georgia, 9-3, 6-2. Beating the Gators will save Richt’s job for the year, unitl they close the season with losses to Auburn and the Yellow Jackets, removing any hopes of playing in a BCS bowl, yet alone for the national title. Close, but not quite.
3. South Carolina, 7-5, 4-4. Dag gummit. If Garcia hadn’t thrown that pick in the first quarter in September, we woulda had a chance...
4. Tennessee, 6-6, 4-4. No more Lane, same ol game. Funny how Peyton is remembered for bring the Vols up to prominence, but it was Tee Martin the next year that won the National Title… Give it a few more years to simmer to see what Dooley can muster up. Any Volunteers?
5. Kentucky, 4-8, 1-7. Have they gotten over throwing parties due to the issues at Louisville yet? Oh wait, we have to play football now? Where’s the Hefty Lefty? Gone? Well, at least we have the 3 best Freshman basketball recruits in the country. What’s that? Gone too?! What time does the Jim Beam open…
6. Vanderbilt, 2-10, 0-8. Even the student body won’t bother to hold SEC tradition and put their ties on for football games this year. Can’t really blame them.

WEST
1. Arkansas, 10-2, 6-2. Mallett will have a few softies to get his ankle squared away before back-to-back weeks with UGA and Bama in late September. They go 1-1 in those games, and fall late to LSU, but will have wrapped up the west in late October. The Razorbacks will wander south for the Sugar Bowl this year after putting up the most points of the year against a stout Gator defense in the SEC championship game. We might even get a John Daly siting or two…
2. Alabama, 9-3, 5-3. After beating JoPa easily on Septemeber 11, there will be rumblings of repeating. But don’t fall into that trap. Ingram will put up nice numbers, but not Heisman invite worthy. McElroy will struggle with new defensive schemes, and having to play from behind a lot more. The defense will want to play well, and that’s nice, but won’t cut it in the SEC. When are you going to bail on this team Saban???
3. LSU, 8-4, 5-3. Les will save his job by beating Arkansas in the last game of the year, but that will only get him to 8 wins this year. Russell Sheppard will turn into this year’s Dexter McCluster putting up highlight real plays, but there won’t be enough glue to keep things together.
4. Auburn, 7-5, 5-3. It will be fun to watch them in some shootouts this year. Get the popcorn out and watch the fun that is Auburn football, that is if you aren’t rooting for them.
5. Ole Miss, 8-4, 4-4. Next year. Next year. This should be the year to strike, but the Rebels just aren’t poised to get the job done. A few shockers here and there, but not enough consistency.
6. Mississippi State, 4-8, 1-7. Maybe the catfish will be biting this fall…